Headline News

Howard Leaman                                                     Dec 11/18


Canola has been mainly on the defensive in overnight action. Palm oil,
European rapeseed, soybean oil and soybean meal are also lower this
morning, but soybeans are slightly higher. The Canadian dollar is virtually
unchanged against the U.S. dollar. The USDA will release its monthly crop
report today, but it does not include an in-field production estimate.
Accordingly, this report is usually not a market mover. 

BULL SIDE                               BEAR SIDE
1) Forecasts are calling for hotter     1) Though some traders remain 
and drier weather in Brazilian soy      optimistic that China will buy U.S.
crop areas. The crop is off to a good   soy soon, trade tension between the
start, but traders are apt to keep      two countries continues to overhang
some weather premium in the market.     the vegetable oil markets.    
2) Canola's short term technical bias   2) The South American soy crop is
is to the upside, and if it can         enjoying favourable conditions, and
penetrate resistance on the price       huge production is expected to come
chart, the buying could build on        onto the market sooner than normal
itself.                                 this year.